How Pakistan’s solar boom is shielding it from worst of Iran war crisis
A quarter of Pakistani households are now using solar panels. This insulates millions of families from the energy crisis
Al Jazeera9 min read7 views
In Dasht, Balochistan, Pakistan, Karim Baksh leans over a slim waterway, using his hands to steer the flow along shallow earthen paths that lead toward a line of maturing watermelons.
In Dasht, a distant community located in the southern reaches of Balochistan, which stands as Pakistan’s biggest province by area, Baksh had long relied on a diesel-driven pump to pull groundwater for watering his fields.
That situation shifted following Russia’s large-scale military operation against Ukraine that began in 2022, triggering sharp rises in fuel costs and leaving him struggling to afford the high-priced diesel needed for regular operation. “It became impossible for me to run the pump on diesel daily,” he said.
With insufficient water reaching his plants, the watermelons began to struggle. During certain periods, he cut back on the area under cultivation. “If there is no water, there is no crop. And if there is no crop, there is no money,” he added.
Then, during 2023, he took a step that appeared uncertain at the time: He obtained a loan of 300,000 Pakistani rupees ($1,075) from family members and acquaintances to set up a series of solar panels alongside his farmland.
Three years on, that decision has proven successful.
With the ongoing US-Israel conflict involving Iran, along with the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz – a route carrying 20 percent of global oil and gas flows in normal times – energy costs have climbed sharply across the planet.
Yet Baksh faces no such concerns. Beneath the intense heat of Dasht, where summer highs can reach 51 degrees Celsius (124 degrees Fahrenheit), his water pump operates free of diesel, allowing him to water his watermelons steadily.
“Now, I don’t care if the prices of diesel increase,” he says, proudly pointing to the sun above. “As long as there is this sun, I can grow my watermelons.”
Baksh’s experience illustrates both a broader challenge that Pakistan has encountered – and still encounters – as well as the unexpected benefits that might protect the nation of 250 million residents from some of the most damaging consequences of the conflict with Iran.
Pakistan’s energy infrastructure stays closely linked to international shipping lanes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz: Eighty percent of the country’s oil imports travel through the vital but narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman, while 99 percent of its liquefied natural gas comes from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
A recent analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations indicates that Pakistan might experience serious energy pressures should the Strait of Hormuz stay blocked over the coming months. The country possesses only modest reserves. Disruptions in gas deliveries to electricity-generating facilities and heavy industries might rapidly lead to widespread blackouts, halted factory operations, and disruptions affecting essential services, transportation, and residents.
However, a gradual shift that has taken place across rooftops and agricultural lands throughout Pakistan in the past several years offers some protection against the global emergency now anticipated.
Numerous solar installations are altering methods of energy generation and consumption, providing Pakistan with a degree of buffering from worldwide energy shocks.
A recent examination conducted by Renewables First and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air draws attention to this development. From 2018 onward, the expansion of rooftop solar installations has enabled Pakistan to cut more than $12bn from its fuel import expenses. At today’s rates, the savings for the current year alone could reach around $6.3bn.
This change did not stem from any unified government strategy. Rather, it emerged through the actions of countless private citizens – cultivators moving away from diesel, companies, and families looking for dependable electricity – who chose to adapt.
The portion of solar power within the national energy supply has climbed from 2.9 percent in 2020 to 32.3 percent in 2025, as reported by EMBER, an autonomous research organization.
Rabia Babar, an energy data manager at Renewables First, notes that the development has contributed to lower oil imports. “Pakistan’s solar revolution wasn’t planned in Islamabad – it was built on rooftops,” she says. “As tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain high, those panels are proving to be one of the country’s most effective energy security strategies.”
In major urban centers such as Lahore and Karachi, solar arrays on building tops have become an everyday view. For numerous middle-income families, choosing solar represents both a financial and functional choice. They often recoup their setup expenses within several years. Power generated by the panels comes at no ongoing cost. Additionally, they have the option to return surplus electricity to the public grid and receive payment for it.
According to the Gallup Pakistan Survey from 2023, close to 15 percent – about 4 million – of households across Pakistan employed solar panels in one way or another.
By 2025, the figure had climbed higher still: Research from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics revealed that 25 percent of households now rely on solar energy to some extent.
Among them, official statistics show that the count of households participating in net-metering has surpassed 280,000 users nationwide and continues to grow rapidly each year. Net metering permits families producing excess solar electricity to return it to the grid for credits applicable during periods without solar generation.
Yet observers indicate that the advantages primarily go to upper-middle-class and affluent Pakistanis. Initial expenses for solar setups can vary from several hundred thousand rupees to over a million, based on capacity and whether batteries are included. Lower-income citizens find such investments out of reach.
After installation, electricity costs for users fall dramatically. Businesses and factories represent key adopters, deploying solar to guard against interruptions in supply. Reduced power expenses enhance their position in global markets, particularly for those focused on exports.
Many cultivators in Balochistan and Punjab operating solar-driven tube wells enjoy consistent water access and escape the volatility of diesel costs. In countryside regions with unreliable electricity, solar has turned into an essential means of support instead of an optional upgrade.
Nevertheless, disadvantaged communities in both cities and villages of Pakistan face the prospect of being excluded.
Moreover, those with net-metering connections draw from the grid during evenings or cloudy conditions but avoid covering many of the system’s fixed expenses. Consequently, this arrangement leads non-solar users – often including many poorer Pakistanis – to help cover the grid expenses of solar adopters.
Analyses indicate that net-metering has already transferred a financial load amounting to 159 billion rupees ($570m) onto regular grid customers, a figure that may expand considerably going forward.
Consequently, specialists worry that Pakistan is developing a divided energy structure – one serving solar participants and another for the rest of the population.
Men use a cot to salvage belongings, including a solar panel, from their flooded home, in Jaffarabad, Pakistan, September 5, 2022. Some made rescuing their solar panel a priority as they fled their homes in the face of the rising floods, wading with their panel through stagnant water [Fareed Khan/ AP Photo]
The majority of solar panels in Pakistan arrive from China, which dominates 80 percent of the worldwide solar production network and manufactures a substantial share of the solar wafers, cells, and finished panels employed around the world, per the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Chinese lithium-ion batteries are also making their way into Pakistan’s marketplace at the same time. These units capture daytime electricity for nighttime consumption. As costs of Chinese lithium-ion batteries decline, greater numbers of people are combining solar panels with storage, further decreasing their need for the public grid.
In Pakistan, this reliance stands out clearly. Solar imports, chiefly from China, totaled under 1GW in 2018. By early 2026, the capacity had expanded dramatically to 51GW, positioning Pakistan among the world’s quickest-expanding solar markets.
“Pakistan’s solar boom isn’t the story of Pakistan. It is also a China story,” says an electrical engineer at the University of Turbat, speaking on condition of anonymity because he is not authorised to speak to the media. “These cheap Chinese solar panels are changing the renewable energy sector around the developing countries.”
Costs of Chinese solar panels have dropped markedly during the last ten years owing to massive output and worldwide rivalry. This excess supply has driven prices lower, notably after 2018.
In the initial years of the 2010s, solar panel prices ranged from 100 rupees ($0.35) to 120 rupees ($0.42) per watt. They have since declined to roughly 30 rupees ($0.10) per watt. A typical 3KW residential solar setup now runs about 450,000 rupees ($1,610), whereas bigger commercial arrays can reach 2,200,000 rupees ($7,874).
In Pakistan, this reduced expense for solar components aligned with ongoing electricity deficits, climbing rates, and elevated global oil prices that followed the Russia-Ukraine war starting in 2022. These factors positioned solar as a practical option for families, enterprises, and agricultural operators able to manage the initial outlay.
The cost of lithium-ion batteries, especially those from China, has similarly declined, enabling households to store power for evening needs and lessen reliance on inconsistent grid service. Prices decreased by 20 percent during 2024 alone, according to the IEA.
But the University of Turbat engineer observed that Pakistan, even as it lessens dependence on imported fuels, is establishing a fresh type of reliance. “Without manufacturing solar panels itself, Pakistan is falling into a new form of dependency – this time on imported technology rather than imported fuel.”
Pakistan’s authorities, for their part, have shown inconsistent positions regarding solar energy.
They launched a net-metering framework in 2015 aimed at encouraging clean energy sources and permitting sales of electricity to the grid at approximately 25 rupees ($0.090) per unit. Officials also eliminated certain duties on solar panel imports, lowering overall system prices. Those measures accelerated growth in the solar sector.
Yet authorities later expressed worries about the economic consequences for the electricity industry as more installations appeared. Lately, they lowered the repurchase rate for fresh net-metering participants to around 10 rupees ($0.036) per unit.
For agricultural producers such as Baksh, these adjustments represent only a minor trade-off.
Back in Dasht, he readies his watermelons for delivery, packing them onto pickup vehicles and lorries heading to local markets in Turbat and Gwadar.
Fuel costs vary, and moving the watermelons carries some unpredictability. But one element of his operations stays consistent and remains unaffected by international developments.
He hopes to acquire additional solar panels, expand his watermelon planting in the upcoming season, and deliver to bigger markets in Quetta and Karachi – urban areas located at greater distances.
For him, at least, he says: “The water keeps flowing no matter what.”
An Albanese government plan to use idle roof space on factories and warehouses for solar panels tackles the “missing middle” in Labor’s quest to push more renewables into the power grid.
The federal government is set to announce changes to the Small-scale Renewable Energy scheme in a bid to help businesses install solar systems and close the gap with residential take-up.
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