Why isn’t there more solar power in one of Canada’s sunniest provinces?

The difference becomes clearer against nearby regions such as Saskatchewan with 108 megawatts and Ontario, which leads with more than 2,500 megawatts. Alberta, another sunny Prairie area, holds second place with almost 2,300 megawatts, although a challenging political setting has reduced interest in solar funding. Across the border, Minnesota possesses over 3,300 megawatts of solar capacity in place, representing around six percent of the state's electricity.

Lavoie noted that part of this variation arises from Manitoba's distinctive oversight framework. In places like Alberta, independent energy firms can pursue big solar developments, but Manitoba's government-owned utility structure requires external review by the Public Utilities Board for any significant infrastructure commitments.

Manitoba provides the country's second-lowest electricity prices, after Quebec, and requires utilities board clearance to increase rates, which limits spending on new projects.

“Low electricity rates in Manitoba make the investments probably a little bit more difficult to manage,” Lavoie said. “[For] utilities of scale, there may be other opportunities that provide a better [return on investment].”

Nevertheless, solar production has expanded sharply across Canada, climbing from 0.1 terawatt-hours in 2010 to nearly five terawatt-hours in 2023, equaling about one percent of the country's energy total or sufficient to supply 195,000 households annually. The energy regulator anticipates this portion will expand further to 13 terawatt-hours by 2040.

Quebec, sharing a comparable electricity structure with Manitoba, intends to deploy three gigawatts of solar by 2035 plus another 300 megawatts of distributed solar over the following decade. New Brunswick is set to activate a 10-megawatt solar initiative jointly owned with Tobique First Nation during the current year, and Prince Edward Island halted its solar support initiative in 2025 after demand exceeded availability.

Although Manitoba has experienced some solar expansion, it is not depending on sunlight to fulfill upcoming power requirements.

Manitoba Hydro generally experiences its highest electricity needs during early mornings and late evenings on cold winter days, and this winter peak plays a major role in the reluctance to pursue solar.

“As much of the system’s winter peak load occurs during the non-daylight hours, solar provides little to no energy when it is needed most,” Manitoba Hydro states in its 2025 integrated resource plan.

This document, designed to direct the utility over the coming decade amid the shift in energy sources, identifies six options viewed as practical for development in that timeframe, including current and enhanced efficiency initiatives, wind energy, brief battery storage, natural gas, and improvements to existing hydroelectric assets. Solar receives no mention.

In a presentation explaining the decision to exclude utility-scale solar, Manitoba Hydro acknowledges benefits such as reduced expenses, minimal upkeep, virtually no emissions, and straightforward expansion, yet points out that solar power “provides zero accredited winter capacity in Manitoba,” while noting that panels are “often covered in snow” and their output timing “does not pair well with Manitoba Hydro’s demand.”

In place of that, the utility is focusing on fresh generation methods capable of covering a predicted deficit exceeding 250 megawatts at peak periods.

“The [integrated resource plan] is really about growing our capacity and, at the same time, ensuring we can provide the electricity when we need it most,” Powell said. “At a utility scale, other sources of energy are typically more available and effective based on our load curve.”

Wilt from the Climate Action Team views this method of evaluating solar's worth as “takes a very narrow-minded focus on meeting demand without thinking about the system holistically.”

Advancements in battery storage have progressed together with variable sources including solar and wind, enabling stored solar electricity to be available during highest need times, he explained.

Although Manitoba Hydro intends to test a five-megawatt battery storage project in upcoming years per the resource plan, Wilt highlighted that the province already benefits from existing storage strengths.

The hydroelectric network receives support from Lake Winnipeg, modified to function as a storage basin where the utility manages releases to its generators. Essentially, the lake operates like a large battery suitable for balancing additional renewable supplies.

From Manitoba Hydro's standpoint, even though the reservoir will assist in supporting planned wind projects, “you can only backstop it so far,” Powell said.

Wilt acknowledged that the Climate Action Team recognizes the “difficult position” facing Manitoba Hydro regarding reservoir management and output capacity under mounting demands.

“But we would argue that a great way to shore up and prevent overutilization of potentially compromised reservoirs is by adding the lowest cost generation to the mix during the summer,” he said.

“We think that there should be tons of solar put on the grid for the summer, tons of wind put on the grid for the winter — which is when it’s most effective — and have battery storage which can help smooth out the intermittency. Having all of these in place will help keep more water behind the reservoirs.”

Ten years back, expectations for solar energy development in Manitoba appeared quite positive.

As photovoltaic solar gained traction, the provincial utility started a trial initiative in 2016 that provided customers with a $1-per-watt subsidy for adding panels to their sites. This support ranked among the strongest nationally then and offset as much as one-third of installation expenses.

Mitchell from Evolve Energy, with over 20 years in the solar field, observed that local enthusiasm for solar began rising around 2013. “then they launched the rebate program and that’s what really kicked it off.”

The trial proved successful, creating 2.6 megawatts of fresh solar capacity and shifting roughly 3.5 gigawatt hours of demand away from the main grid yearly, comparable to the annual consumption of 137 households.

“By all accounts, Hydro was just completely overwhelmed by the number of applicants,” Wilt said.

Powell at Hydro noted that the trial was “very well received at the time.”

Participants received bi-directional meters permitting properties to both receive and send power relative to the hydroelectric network. Such grid-linked arrangements are standard for household and modest commercial solar: during daylight, the site uses its solar output and returns surplus to the network. In darkness, it draws from the grid in the usual manner.

Surplus electricity receives payment through either net-metering or net-billing approaches. Net-metering, employed in nine out of 13 provinces and territories, grants owners credit for every kilowatt-hour delivered to the network and bills solely for net usage after subtracting contributions.

Net-billing instead compensates distributed solar providers with an electricity rate per kilowatt-hour exported. Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia employ net-billing, each with distinct compensation levels.

During Manitoba's solar trial, the rate for excess energy matched the standard utility charges.

Following the trial's conclusion, conditions for solar in Manitoba shifted notably.

A number of installers who arrived seeking opportunities from the growth departed; multiple users hurried to complete their setups prior to the subsidy program's termination.

“When it ended, the whole local industry collapsed,” Wilt said.

Oversight of subsequent solar support programs moved to the recently established Crown entity Efficiency Manitoba, responsible for efforts to lower electricity and natural gas usage in the province. The updated initiative, introduced in 2022, supplied a $0.50-per-watt subsidy for home setups up to $5,000, along with $0.75 for agricultural or commercial projects. It also adopted an excess energy rate determined by Manitoba Hydro that “reflects the current market value” of power.

“Net-billing appropriately recognizes the value of that excess energy when it’s sold back on the grid,” Powell said. “Net-metering would pay customers at a rate that incorporates the full cost to deliver electricity to residential customers. Solar customers don’t have to absorb that cost, so it wouldn’t be appropriate to pay that full rate.”

This compensation level, set annually each spring, has varied considerably afterward. It stood just above four cents per kilowatt-hour in 2025, hit a low of 2.4 cents in 2021, and sits just over seven cents this year.

“It can certainly provide uncertainty for potential investors and developers,” Lavoie said.

Jana Brunel, manager of strategic initiatives at Efficiency Manitoba, described the program as experiencing “steady uptake” with 750 setups completed so far. However, the province's affordable and mostly clean power can restrict participation relative to other areas.

“We have low energy rates, which make the payback of some investments different,” Brunel said in an interview.

Efficiency Manitoba collaborates with users to align solar system sizes with their consumption levels, leading to reduced surplus output, Brunel noted.

“If you can install solar to really reduce the energy you need to use from the grid … that’s where the biggest financial savings come,” she said. “That’s why our program is really geared at properly sizing a system not to have an abundance of excess energy being sent back to the grid.”

Mitchell characterized the program as “pretty good” for home users and “really amazing” for agricultural and business sites. Larger setups qualifying for better excess rates, including those fixed at the matching level, have achieved investment recovery in six to nine years.

“We’re seeing the uptick for them, finally, really happening this year,” Mitchell said.

For smaller residential arrays, Mitchell's company creates designs to safeguard returns against varying power prices.

“I try to caution them that this is what’s going to cause their investment to go up and down,” she said. “It’s like playing the stocks.”

In 2024, Efficiency Manitoba teamed with Manitoba Hydro to engage Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors in developing a strategy for cutting peak demand via customer-oriented measures including efficiency improvements, heat pump initiatives, and distributed solar.

The analysis indicated that by 2037, peak needs might move toward late afternoon hours due to elements like electric vehicle recharging and better efficiency gains. Under those conditions, distributed solar might lower that load by as much as 117 megawatts.

Yet it also determined that solar uptake “is not projected to approach levels observed in the past pilot program in the initial years of study unless lucrative incentives … are provided.”

“Despite continued global cost declines for solar [photovoltaic] systems, the decline in Manitoba’s solar [photovoltaic] market following the end of the pilot program, coupled with significant reductions in compensation for excess generation, is expected to reduce customer demand for the next several years,” the study said.

“However, as solar [photovoltaic] system costs continue to decline, adoption is projected to increase in the later years of the study.”

Brunel at Efficiency Manitoba stated that solar energy “certainly plays a role in helping reduce electricity consumption and energy consumption,” with its effectiveness expected to rise over time alongside maturing battery technology and efficiency measures.

“When solar [photovoltaic] systems can be paired with battery storage, that presents more of an opportunity to use the electricity,” Brunel said.

Manitoba Hydro remains open to possibilities, according to Powell.

“We’re technology agnostic. If solar was the right answer for our system and our customers, that’s what we would be going with. But there are other technologies, other forms of energy, that offer better value for the system we have,” he said.

“Could that change in the future? Absolutely.”

With shortages approaching, however, Mitchell feels the province has lagged in committing to solar.

“As things go critical in Manitoba for a net need for energy, they’re going to have to come back and address this, because a few gas turbines isn’t going to do it,” Mitchell said.

“I think diversifying the grid and making it healthier and stronger is the way to go, and you can do that very easily with renewables.”